Walt Disney’s Frozen II earned around $12.82 million on Monday, a drop of 66% from its $38 million Sunday, to bring its four-day cume to $143.083 million. If the film’s 36.3/63.7 domestic/overseas split remains as is, then we can surmise that the film has earned $394 million worldwide. That means, it’ll pass $400 million by the end of this sentence.
In terms of Sunday-to-Monday drops for films opening on this key pre-Thanksgiving weekend, it’s at the higher end. However, we’re dealing with a bunch of movies (three Harry Potter films, three Hunger Games sequels, four Twilight Saga flicks, two Fantastic Beasts movies, and Justice League) that all dropped between 62% and 67% on their first Mondays. Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets didn’t get to Thanksgiving until its third weekend, which explains its 73% Sunday-to-Monday drop.
The Grinch dropped a whopping 78% on its first Monday back in 2000. That argues either fewer kids were out of school than are in today’s school years or folks who missed it over the weekend were just waiting until the proper holidays to catch it. The performance of the Ron Howard blockbuster (at $260 million domestic, it was the year’s biggest domestic earner) is still the ideal scenario for the Walt Disney sequel.
It opened with $55 million and then earned $52 million (-5%) on weekend two, besting Phantom Menace’s record ($51 million from a $64 million opening) for the biggest second-weekend gross at that time. The Grinch ended day ten with $137 million, or 2.5x its opening weekend. A similar run would give Frozen 2 a boffo $323 million domestic ten-day cume. If that seems hyperbolic, then perhaps Catching Fire is a better example.
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That Hunger Games sequel nagged the biggest November opening ever with $158 million, which still temporarily caused Lionsgate’s stock to drop by 10% because idiots over at Wall Street were sure it would open closer to $185 million. The film held firm and earned $113 million over its Wed-Sun frame (a record for Thanksgiving) even as Frozen opened wide with $93 million over the Wed-Sun holiday weekend. Catching Fire ended day ten with $296 million on the way to $424 million domestic cues.
A similar pattern would give Frozen II a $244 million ten-day cume toward a $350 million domestic finish. If Star Wars: The Phantom Menace seems applicable, it opened with a then-record $105 million Wed-Sun cume, which was considered lower than hoped. It took the silver medal among Fri-Sun openings with $64 million, below The Lost World’s $74 million Fri-Sun frame, but it still led to a boffo Memorial Day weekend.
Despite mixed reviews and fan outcries over George Lucas having ruined Star Wars (time is a flat circle), Episode One earned $51 million over the Fri-Sun weekend and $66 million over the holiday for a then-record $207 million 13-day cume. It eventually legged out to $431 million domestic, becoming still one of the leggiest mega-movies of all time. It’s not an exact comparison since Phantom Menace opened on a Wednesday and had a holiday Memorial Day Monday for day 13, but if you’ll humor me a moment…
Frozen II performing likewise would also mean around 1.95x its $130 million weekend for a ten-day cume of around $255 million. Or maybe it’ll merely play like Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, which also dropped 72% on its first Monday but then earned a then-record $57 million (-36%) second weekend following a record-breaking $90 million debut, for a $187 million ten-day cume. A 2.09x multiplier from Frozen II’s $130 million debut would be around $269 million by Sunday night.
As you can see, there are no bad scenarios here. Even a ten-day run like Justice League ($171 million after a $93 million launch) would give Frozen II a $238 million ten-day cume. Hell, presuming it continues that 36/64 domestic/overseas split, it could end Sunday night with anywhere from $656 million (if it plays like Justice League) to $892 million (if it plays like The Grinch). And, again, Frozen II’s biggest advantage this weekend is that it’s the holiday’s big animated blockbuster AND the holiday’s big YA fantasy adventure flick. If Disney can convince folks that it’s a superhero movie too, they might have a hat trick.